The purpose of this is to gather information on how the covid-19 pandemic is progressing in East TN. There are good sites that have info on the pandemic generally across the US and world, but Tennessee as well as local entities put out info that is not captured by these sites.

I am mostly doing this for my own curiosity as a parent in Oak Ridge, TN; though I work in science, I don’t work in epidemiology. Thus, I’m not doing any calculations of future spread, etc. – I’m taking published datasets and plotting them. For datasets that are presented as current conditions but do not have a history, I take a copy of them (usually every six hours) to be able to plot how they change over time.

Use the menu above for information on vaccinations, conditions in schools, and more.

Currently, at least 1 of every 42 people in our region (2.38%) have active covid infections (based on the tests reported to the state; additional people may have covid but have not been tested). Another way of looking at this: if UTK’s Neyland Stadium had this percentage of people with active covid infections, 2,443 people in the 102,455 person stadium would have covid right now (though hopefully people who know they are sick stay home). Over the course of the pandemic, 337 people in a full stadium would have died from covid, 648 would have been hospitalized, and 17,557 would have had a case of covid.

As of the last time the data were updated, the 19 regional hospitals around Knoxville had only 19 ICU beds available of 317 total, based on info from the Knox County Health Department.

As of Sat, Jan 22, 2022, 21,705 people have died from covid in Tennessee.

The COVID-19 Forecast Hub makes predictions based on a number of models every week. They predict that in the week ending on Jan 29, an additional 401 people (range 124-699) will have died from covid in Tennessee, with 386 more covid deaths by Feb 05.

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Percentage of people in the region with active covid-19

A high level overview of the pandemic in Tennessee as a whole (using Tennessee’s definitions of groups):

Category Group Positive Covid Test Covid Death At Least One Vaccination Fully Vaccinated
Race American Indian or Alaska Native 1/13 1/1429
Race Asian 1/9 1/1250 54.6% 46.5%
Race Black or African American 1/5 1/323 41.2% 35.6%
Race Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific Islander 1/5 1/625
Race White 1/5 1/323 45.4% 41%
Ethnicity Hispanic 1/5 1/769 60.2% 50.5%
Ethnicity Not Hispanic or Latino 1/6 1/333 53.9% 49%
Sex Female 1/4 1/357 62.4% 56.2%
Sex Male 1/4 1/286 55.5% 49.3%