The purpose of this is to gather information on how the covid-19 pandemic is progressing in East TN. There are good sites that have info on the pandemic generally across the US and world, but Tennessee as well as local entities put out info that is not captured by these sites.

I am mostly doing this for my own curiosity as a parent in Oak Ridge, TN; though I work in science, I don’t work in epidemiology. Thus, I’m not doing any calculations of future spread, etc. – I’m taking published datasets and plotting them. For datasets that are presented as current conditions but do not have a history, I take a copy of them (usually every six hours) to be able to plot how they change over time.

Use the menu above for information on vaccinations, conditions in schools, and more.

Currently, at least 1 of every 112 people in our region (0.89%) have active covid infections (based on the tests reported to the state; additional people may have covid but have not been tested). Another way of looking at this: if UTK’s Neyland Stadium had this percentage of people with active covid infections, 912 people in the 102,455 person stadium would have covid right now (though hopefully people who know they are sick stay home). Over the course of the pandemic, 219 people in a full stadium would have died from covid, 476 would have been hospitalized, and 13,441 would have had a case of covid.

As of the last time the data were updated, the 19 regional hospitals around Knoxville had only 23 ICU beds available of 317 total, based on info from the Knox County Health Department.

As of Sat, Sep 18, 2021, 14,332 people have died from covid in Tennessee.

The COVID-19 Forecast Hub makes predictions based on a number of models every week. They predict that in the week ending on Sep 25, an additional 430 people (range 253-657) will have died from covid in Tennessee, with 427 more covid deaths by Oct 02.

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Percentage of people in the region with active covid-19

A high level overview of the pandemic in Tennessee as a whole (using Tennessee’s definitions of groups):

Category Group Positive Covid Test Covid Death At Least One Vaccination Fully Vaccinated
Race American Indian or Alaska Native 1/20 1/2500
Race Asian 1/14 1/1667 48.4% 42.3%
Race Black or African American 1/7 1/435 36% 30.2%
Race Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific Islander 1/6 1/1000
Race White 1/7 1/476 40.8% 36.1%
Ethnicity Hispanic 1/6 1/1000 50.9% 41.9%
Ethnicity Not Hispanic or Latino 1/8 1/476 46.5% 41.3%
Sex Female 1/5 1/526 55.4% 48.8%
Sex Male 1/6 1/417 48.5% 42.2%