The microCOVID Project is a service that uses the best available data to estimate the risk of different activities. It does not replace advice from a medical professional, but as a way to deciding how to balance risk, it can be useful. It computes “microcovids,” a one in a million chance of getting covid: every 10,000 microcovids means a 1% chance of getting covid at the event.
Microcovid.org’s point estimate the percentage chance of getting covid in a one hour lecture for someone (the rows) with a classroom of people with vaccination state matching that of Knox County and with different masks as columns. You can see the details of the scenario I set up here; you can change your vaccination and masks, the classroom’s conditions, etc. Note that the numbers are the odds of the focal person getting covid; it does not capture how severe the disease is (vaccination dramatically cuts the risk of death if you do get covid, for example):
unmasked | cloth | N95 | |
---|---|---|---|
Boosted & N95 | 1/Inf (0%) | 1/Inf (0%) | 1/Inf (0%) |
Vax but no booster & cloth | 1/500 (0.2%) | 1/1000 (0.1%) | 1/Inf (0%) |
Not vax, no mask | 1/500 (0.2%) | 1/1000 (0.1%) | 1/Inf (0%) |
And the same probability of getting covid over six class sessions with these conditions;
unmasked | cloth | N95 | |
---|---|---|---|
Boosted & N95 | 1/1000 (0.1%) | 1/1000 (0.1%) | 1/Inf (0%) |
Vax but no booster & cloth | 1/83 (1.2%) | 1/200 (0.5%) | 1/500 (0.2%) |
Not vax, no mask | 1/83 (1.2%) | 1/167 (0.6%) | 1/500 (0.2%) |